The Indian retail market, which is the fifth largest retail destination globally, has been ranked the second most attractive emerging market for investment after Vietnam in the retail sector by AT Kearney's seventh annual Global Retail Development Index (GRDI), in 2008. The share of retail trade in the country's gross domestic product (GDP) was between 8–10 per cent in 2007. It is currently around 12 per cent, and is likely to reach 22 per cent by 2010.

A McKinsey report 'The rise of Indian Consumer Market', estimates that the Indian consumer market is likely to grow four times by 2025. Commercial real estate services company, CB Richard Ellis' findings state that India's retail market is currently valued at US$ 511 billion.

Banks, capital goods, engineering, fast moving consumer goods (FMCG), software services, oil marketing, power, two-wheelers and telecom companies are leading the sales and profit growth of India Inc in the fourth quarter of 2008-09. India continues to be among the most attractive countries for global retailers. At US$ 511 billion in 2008, its retail market is larger than ever and drawing both global and local retailers. Foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows as on January 2009, in single-brand retail trading, stood at approx. US$ 25.18 million, according to the Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion (DIPP).

India's overall retail sector is expected to rise to US$ 833 billion by 2013 and to US$ 1.3 trillion by 2018, at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10 per cent. As a democratic country with high growth rates, consumer spending has risen sharply as the youth population (more than 33 percent of the country is below the age of 15) has seen a significant increase in its disposable income. Consumer spending rose an impressive 75 per cent in the past four years alone. Also, organised retail, which accounts for almost 5 per cent of the market, is expected to grow at a CAGR of 40 per cent from US$ 20 billion in 2007 to US$ 107 billion by 2013.

India has emerged the third most attractive market destination for apparel retailers, according to a new study by global management consulting firm AT Kearney. It further says that in India, apparel is the second largest retail category, representing 10 per cent of the US$ 37 billion retail market. It is expected to grow 12-15 per cent per year. Apparel, along with food and grocery, will lead the organised retailing in India. India has one of the largest numbers of retail outlets in the world. A report by Images Retail estimates the number of operational malls to grow more than two-fold, to cross 412, with 205 million square feet by 2010, and a further 715 malls to be added by 2015, with major retail developments even in tier-II and tier-III cities in India.

• Marks & Spencer Reliance India is planning to open 35 more stores over the next five years, according to Mark Ashman, CEO of the company. The 51:49 joint venture between UK’s Marks and Spencer and Reliance Retail Ltd already has 15 stores in India.
• Future Group has been restructured to test the new rules on FDI under Press Notes 2, 3 and 4 issued in February 2009. The company plans to bring in up to US$ 148.7 million in foreign investment. Although FDI is permitted only in single-brand retail and not permitted in multi-brand retail businesses like Future Group's, the conglomerate has created two layers of operations to take advantage of the three Press Notes that allow FDI up to 49 per cent in operating-cum-investment companies as long as they are owned and controlled by Indians.
• Carrefour SA, Europe’s largest retailer, may start wholesale operations in India by 2010 and plans to set up its first cash-and-carry outlet in the National Capital Region. Currently, Carrefour exports goods worth US$ 170 million from India to Europe, UAE, Indonesia, Europe, Thailand, Singapore and Malaysia.
• Jewellery manufacturer and retailer, Gitanjali Group and MMTC are jointly setting up a chain of exclusive retail outlets called Shuddi–Sampurna Vishwas. The joint venture, which plans to open around 60 stores across India by end of this year, will retail hallmarked gold and diamond jewellery.
• Mahindra Retail, a part of the US$ 6.7-billion Mahindra Group, plans to invest US$ 19.8 million by 2010 to step up its specialty retail concept 'Mom and Me'.

Policy Initiatives

100 per cent FDI is allowed in cash-and-carry wholesale formats. Franchisee arrangements are also permitted in retail trade.

51 per cent FDI is allowed in single-brand retailing.

Road Ahead

According to industry experts, the next phase of growth is expected to come from rural markets, with rural India accounting for almost half of the domestic retail market, valued over US$ 300 billion. Rural India is set to witness an economic boom, with per capita income having grown by 50 per cent over the last 10 years, mainly on account of rising commodity prices and improved productivity.

According to retail and consumer products division, E&Y India, basic infrastructure, generation of employment guarantee schemes, better information services and access to funding are also bringing prosperity to rural households. The rural market, product design will need to go beyond ideas like smaller sizes (such as single use sachets) to create genuinely new products, according to Ramesh Srinivas, national industry director (consumer markets), KPMG India.

According to the Investment commission of India, the overall retail market is expected to grow from US$ 262 billion to about US$ 1065 billion by 2016, with organised retail at US$ 165 billion (approximately 15.5 per cent of total retail sales). India is expected to be among the top 5 retail markets in the world in 10 years.

According to new market research report by RNCOS titled, "Booming Retail Sector in India", organised retail market in India is expected to reach US$ 50 billion by 2011.

• Number of shopping malls is expected to increase at a CAGR of more than 18.9 per cent from 2007 to 2015.
• Rural market is projected to dominate the retail industry landscape in India by 2012 with total market share of above 50 per cent.
• Organised retailing of mobile handset and accessories is expected to reach close to US$ 990 million by 2010.
• Driven by the expanding retail market, third party logistic market is forecasted to reach US$ 20 billion by 2011.

Exchange rate used: 1 USD = 50.5047 INR